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Week 5 NFL Picks ATS by Cheddar Jack




Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick, with 16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games. (Note: some of the lines may have moved since initially being posted on Tuesdays)


Week 4 Results

ATS: 12-3

Confidence Pts: 94


Season Total

ATS: 37-26

Confidence Pts: 318

WEEK 5 PICKS


TB @ Chi (+3.5)

The Pick: TB

Confidence: 10

Breakdown: Tom Brady and the Bucs head to Soldier Field for a TNF matchup with the Bears against new starting QB Nick Foles. Big Dick Nick played about as well as I'd anticipated last week, and it might not be long before people are calling for Trubisky if they drop another game. The Bears struggled against the Colts defense, but that was to be expected. The last time TB12 squared off with Foles was in the Super Bowl a few years ago. Remember what happened there? TB will be HELL-BENT on getting revenge against the man who stole one of his Super Bowl Rings. I don't care how old he is, Tom Brady with a chip on his shoulder is a dangerous man.


JAX @ HOU (-6.5)

The Pick: JAX

Confidence: 4

Breakdown: The Texans are 0-4 ATS this year, and are now led by interim HC Romeo Crennel. I'll be the first to admit, they have played a tough schedule. But they haven't been competitive in any of their losses and just dropped a game to the Vikings who have also looked awful up to that point. The Jaguars gave up 500 yards of total offense last week, including a huge day to Joe Mixon who went for 151 yds on the ground. The Texans rushing attack, however, is non-existent. To win this game, the Texans are going to need to put the ball in Deshaun Watson's hands, but his lack of playmakers is evident. I think the return of DJ Chark last week greatly improved the Jags offense, and I think this game will be close, so I'll take the points in this one, although I wish the line was 7.


CIN @ BAL (-13.5)

The Pick: CIN

Confidence: 5

Breakdown: As I correctly predicted, last week was a get-right game for Baltimore after looking abysmal against Kansas City on MNF. The ground game and passing attack was working well for them against the Redskins last week. Cincinnati is coming off their first win of the season against the Jags, and Joe Burrow has the offense humming, averaging almost 400 YPG. The problem for them, however, is that they give up over 150 YPG on the ground. Geno Atkins is close to making his return, however, and if he does this week, they should be much improved in that area. AFC divisional games always seem to be close, so I'll take the points w/ the Bengals.


LAR @ WAS (+9)

The Pick: WAS

Confidence: 1

Breakdown: What to do with the Rams? After looking great for 3 weeks, even in a close loss to the Bills, they hosted the NYG and laid a dud, barely eeking out win in the 4th. Meanwhile, Washington is looking to right the ship after benching Dwayne Haskins (huh?). Kyle Allen will now be under center for them, and we're not quite sure what to expect out of him. After having a strong few game run with the Panthers, he was ultimately benched. The Redskins defense actually hasn't been that bad this year, and I'm thinking Kyle Allen might provide a spark to a sputtering offense. Plus, I'm always weary about west coast teams traveling east for an early game. The Rams are a better football team than the Washington Football Team, but I think Washington can surprise people and keep this one close.


PHI @ PIT (-7)

The Pick: PHI

Confidence: 2

Breakdown: The battle for Pennsylvania! Pittsburgh received an unexpected bye week after the Titans COVID outburst, while the Eagles dismantled the 49ers on their home turf (albeit, a banged up 9ers team). Pittsburgh's defense is one of the best in the league, but I think the time-off might actually hurt them from an offensive rhythm perspective. The Eagles are flying high and in first place of the NFC East, and that alone might give them some confidence going into this matchup. I'm not supremely confident in this pick, but I'll take the points, as I feel this one could be close.


ARI @ NYJ (+6.5)

The Pick: ARI

Confidence: 13

Breakdown: What happened to the Cardinals? They've now lost 2 straight to the Lions and Panthers (puke!). That Kyler Murray MVP thing seems like a distant past. The Jets might get Le'Veon Bell back, which could be a big boost to the offense, but they'll now have Joe Flacco at the helm soooooooo there goes that. The problem with both of these teams is that their defenses can't stop anybody, so this one could be a high scoring affair. In that case, I'll take the Cardinals, who should be able to score at will and win big if they can get some (expected) stops against the NYJ.


DEN @ NE (-8.5)

The Pick: NE

Confidence: 14

Breakdown: It's not clear if this game will be played as a result of positive 'rona tests, but I think the Broncos are hoping it's not. Denver will be traveling to Foxborough, without a few of its playmakers in Noah Fant and KJ Hamler. That leaves them with Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick. Bill Belichick is the best in the biz when it comes to taking away your teams top weapon. The Patriots always try to take away the run game first, and will try to make Denver's QB beat them, whoever that may be. My guess is Rypien starts again, and if that's the case, I don't think lightning strikes twice in the northeast. I'll take Cam Newton and the Patriots at home here to win handedly.


LV @ KC (-12.5)

The Pick: KC

Confidence: 8

Breakdown: The Chiefs will be on a short-week, having played MNF against a Pats team that didn't have Cam Newton. While they covered the spread last week, it was a closer game than the score indicated. Meanwhile the Raiders came back down to earth, losing by a TD to the Bills at home, which isn't too bad. Derek Carr continues to play well for the Raiders, and he's going to need to in order to keep up with the high-scoring Chiefs. But going into Arrowhead and finding success is no small feat. It's about time we see another outburst from Patty, Clyde and the gang and I think that comes this week at home. Give me the favorite.


BUF @ TEN (+1)

The Pick: BUF

Confidence: 12

Breakdown: This game is also in doubt, given the COVID. JUST LET US PLAY FOOTBALL, CORONA!! CAN WE AT LEAST HAVE THAT??? ...... OK, frustrations aside, Buffalo has looked like one of the best teams in football this year. I'm a little suspect on their defense, but their offense looks as though it can't be stopped. Getting AJ Brown back should be a big help for TEN, but they've beaten the Broncos, Jags, and Vikings. How good are they really? Normally I'm a big fan of betting home dawgs, but I gotta ride with Bills Mafia until they show me otherwise.


CAR @ ATL (-3.5)

The Pick: ATL

Confidence: 6

Breakdown: How the Falcons are favored at 0-4, is a true mystery. But Vegas is always up to something..... The Panthers are 2-0 without Christian McCaffrey and got a tough win against Arizona last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons are on a short week after a poor showing in Green Bay. The Falcons defense is terrible. The Panthers defense was terrible last year, but showed up big against Arizona last week. I don't think the Falcons can stay winless forever, and they have too much offensive firepower to be THIS bad. I'll take the Falcons in their home dome, but with caution.


MIA @ SF (-8)

The Pick: SF

Confidence: 9

Breakdown: The public seems to be HIGH on Miami in this one for some reason, and I'm not seeing it. Sure, they've played in some close games this year, but we can all agree they're not a good football team. The 49ers are probably getting back Raheem Mostert and Jimmy Garappolo, and their offense is still averaging 425 YPG, while the defense is only giving up 300, and 17 PPG. Miami's defense has been awful at giving up yards, and actually quite a bit lucky when it comes to keeping teams out of the endzone. Fitzmagic might have a day, but I'm sure as hell not going to bet on it. The 49ers are still a force in the NFC, and I think they dominate the Dolphins this week and show you why.


IND @ CLE (+2.5)

The Pick: CLE

Confidence: 15

Breakdown: The Colts got an ugly win against the Bears last week, but their defense has been lights out so far this year. That game kind of went as expected. But the Browns going into Dallas and winning outright? Who saw that coming? Oh yeah, I did :) - - - The Browns offense is clicking on all cylinders. Losing Nick Chubb is a big loss, but Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson didn't miss a beat running behind that line last week. Meanwhile, Baker and Odell seem to be finding some magic together, and Cleveland actual might be what we expected them to be last year, which is an actual threat in the AFC. I'm not confident in their defense, but I think Cleveland can score some points in this one and should be more comfortable in the Dawg Pound. I'll take the Brownies as home dawgs.


NYG @ DAL (-9.5)

The Pick: DAL

Confidence: 11

Breakdown: This is a game of true opposites. Dallas' offense is incredible, but their defense can't stop a nose bleed. I'm not sure the Giants know what an offense is, but their defense hasn't actually been all that bad this year. If there's one of those things that's bound to change, I'll be betting on the Dallas defense to get a few stops, as their offense should still put up points in bunches. They have so many more playmakers as a team than the lowly Giants at this point. The Giants hung tough in LA last week, but Jerry's Cowboys need a strong showing, or McCarthy could have a quick exit in Arlington. I'll take dem Cowboys to cover their first spread of the year.


MIN @ SEA (-7)

The Pick: MIN

Confidence: 3

Breakdown: The NFL was probably predicting a matchup of two of the best teams in the NFC when scheduling this one. Well, they got one of the best teams in the NFC. The other is the Vikings, who finally got a win last week as I predicted. Opposite of what has been said below about Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins is the anti-primetime performer. The guy has been BRUTAL when the lights are at their brightest. He's more fit to be playing on a Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati on a local channel that no one cares about. So why am I picking the Vikings here? Well, because at some point, you're due. Tis the case with gambling, and tis the case with Kirk here. The Seahawks defense is swiss cheese, and without the 12th man, they don't have much of a home field advantage. Dalvin Cook is a monster, and while the Seahawks have allowed the lowest rushing YPG in the league, that's mostly because teams have had to throw against them to keep up. Being a primetime game, and the Vikings coming off a big win, I expect this one to be closer than 7, so I'll take the points in this one.


LAC @ NO (-7.5)

The Pick: NO

Confidence: 7

Breakdown: I know this came back to bite me a few weeks ago, but Drew Brees in primetime at the Superdome, has been a magician. Alvin Kamara is the best running back in football, and they'll likely get back Michael Thomas, one of the best receivers in football. Drew Brees has not been as bad as the media makes him out to be this year. The Saints had a big comeback win against Detroit last week, and know they can't fall behind like that and keep winning games. I'm a big fan of rookie QB Justin Herbert, but I think Marshon Lattimore holds Keenan Allen in check in this one. Herbert doesn't have many options behind him that can compete w/ the likes of Kamara and Thomas. I think the Saints score early in this one, and never look back.



- - - CHEDDAR JACK - - -

cheddarjack@betthefarm.net

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