Week 4 NFL Picks ATS by Cheddar Jack

Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick, with 16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games. (Note: some of the lines may have moved since initially being posted on Tuesdays.

Week 3 Results

ATS: 7-9

Confidence Pts: 66

Season Total

ATS: 25-23

Confidence Pts: 224

WEEK 4 PICKS

DEN @ NYJ (+3)

The Pick: DEN

Confidence: 1

Breakdown: The toilet bowl of the century! This line opened closer to -3 for Denver, but has since swung to the Jets as a 1 point favorite at most sportsbooks. Adam Gase appears to be coaching for his job in this one, and Denver is rolling out an unknown starter at QB in Brett Rypien. The Jets should get back Jamison Crowder, who might be their only playmaker on offense, which should aid their cause. But their starting rookie tackle Mekhi Becton is at risk of missing this game, and if that occurs, the Jets could be in a world of hurt against a Denver D that's still been able to generate a decent pass rush. Part of me thinks the Jets and Sam Darnold will come out with something to prove, but I don't know that it's going to be enough with their lack of playmakers. I'll take the road team in this one.

MIN @ HOU (-3.5)

The Pick: MIN

Confidence: 5

Breakdown: Minnesota nearly got their first win last week against a Titans team that has quite a few question marks, but remain unbeaten. Meanwhile, Houston also jumped out to a fast start against a good Steelers team, but was unable to seal the deal. Minnesota's ground game appears to have gotten going a bit last week, and the Texans were gashed for almost 7 YPC by the Steelers. To me, this one is a closer to a pick 'em and Vegas is backing the home team with a couple points, but I'll take the Vikings in this one.

ARI @ CAR (+3.5)

The Pick: ARI

Confidence: 13

Breakdown: Carolina is coming off their first win of the season against rookie QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers, while Arizona dropped a disappointing game to the winless Lions. This line feels like an overreaction to both of those events, and Arizona is a much more dangerous team than Carolina. While the Cardinals are traveling several time zones east for an early game, Carolina's defense will be no match for Kyler Murray in this one. I'll confidently take the Cardinals here.

BAL @ WAS (+13.5)

The Pick: BAL

Confidence: 8

Breakdown: What happened to Baltimore? Their offense last week looked abysmal against a suspect Chiefs defense on Monday Night. Lamar Jackson missed several throws, but there were quite a few drops by Mark Andrews mixed in there as well. Meanwhile, Washington was steamrolled by the Cleveland Browns, and second year QB Dwayne Haskins just hasn't seemed to find it yet in his career. While Washington's defense is no cupcake, they'll likely be without stud rookie Chase Young in this one. I'll take the Ravens in a bounce back effort here.

LAC @ TB (-7.5)

The Pick: TB

Confidence: 3

Breakdown: The Chargers travel to Tompa Bay, where the Bucs seem to be hitting their stride a bit. After falling to the Saints in week 1, Tampa has won 2 in a row (against the Panthers and Broncos, so there's that), and Tom Brady knows this is a winnable game on a schedule that gets tougher as the year goes on. Justin Herbert looked good a couple weeks ago, but the Chargers haven't taken the training wheels off and allowed him to push the ball downfield. I think the Bucs force him into some tougher throws this week, and I'll take the experience of Tom Brady and the Bucs versus a rookie QB.

SEA @ MIA (+6.5)

The Pick: SEA

Confidence: 14

Breakdown: Ah, September football and Fitzmagic. All is right again! The Dolphins showed up big last Thursday in a game that very few people projected them to win. Seattle meanwhile continues to roll on offense, but their defense can't stop a nose bleed this year. This is another case of a west coast team traveling all the way east, but Seattle has looked too good to bet against this year. My assumption is that the line is this low because Seattle might be without key players in Chris Carson, Jamal Adams, Shaq Griffin, etc. I'm betting at least several of those guys play, but even if they don't, they should be able to light these Dolphins up.

NO @ DET (+4)

The Pick: DET

Confidence: 9

Breakdown: Detroit finally got Kenny Golladay back last week, and were able to upset the Cardinals on the road for an impressive win. Meanwhile, the Saints looked OK against the Packers, but are now 1-2 on the year and have dropped back to back games. The Saints are going to need a big win here if they want to keep pace with the Bucs in the division. While I think the Lions are a decent team, I think the Saints get a much needed road win in this one.

CLE @ DAL (-4.5)

The Pick: CLE

Confidence: 6

Breakdown: The Dallas Cowboys are dangerous on offense. That's well known. But their defense has been shredded this year. Cleveland has put up 34+ points in back to back games against the Bengals and Redskins, so their offense seems to be hitting it's stride. I think this one turns out to be a close game, in which the Browns try to keep Prescott off the field by handing the ball to Chubb and Hunt. I'll take the points in this one, albeit, with some pause.

JAX @ CIN (-3)

The Pick: CIN

Confidence: 4

Breakdown: The Bengals had a grind-it-out tie with the Eagles last week, in which neither team was all that impressive. The Jags got whooped on Thursday by a sub-par Dolphins team. This game isn't one that many people can get excited for. The Bengals have played all close games this year, only being outscored by a combined 8 points in all three games. Joe Burrow appears to be on the verge of his first NFL win, and I think he gets that this week against a Jags team that lacks playmakers in comparison to the Bengals. Give me the home favorite here.

IND @ CHI (+2.5)

The Pick: IND

Confidence: 7

Breakdown: The Bears are rolling with Big Dick Nick from here on out, and that should give them a better chance at winning more ball games this year. The Colts, meanwhile, have played pretty well, and their defense is consistently making plays and holding opponents out of the end zone. The Bears defense hasn't been much to write home about this year, but always play well at Soldier Field. But under Frank Reich, the Colts have found a way to win, and I think they do that this week in a road game against the undefeated Bears.

NYG @ LAR (-13)

The Pick: LAR

Confidence: 10

Breakdown: The Rams narrowly missed completing an epic comeback against the Bills on the road last week. The Bills are no joke on either side of the ball, which has to leave the Rams feeling pretty good about their team and hungry for a win. The Giants have been arguably the worst team in football through 3 games, and Daniel Jones has shown nothing to the fanbase to assure them that he's the franchise QB. His defense isn't doing him any favors, either. Goff looks like he did a couple years ago, and the Rams have a ton of playmakers on offense ready to have a field day against the G-Men. I hate laying double digit points as I mentioned last week, but this one again feels warranted.

NE @ KC (-7)

The Pick: KC

Confidence: 11

Breakdown: **original pick was NE before Cam Newtown was ruled out this week. With that, I’ll take the Chiefs. Kansas City came out firing against the Ravens last week, in what felt like a prove-it game by Patrick Mahomes. They're still the Super Bowl Champs and the team to beat in the AFC. The Patriots rebounded from a loss by plowing through the Raiders at home. While it's always tough to go in to Arrowhead, I think Belichick and McDaniels will have something ready for these Chiefs this week. I think this line should be closer to 4 or 5, so I'm going to take the underdog with the points, but wouldn't bet the Patriots outright.

BUF @ LV (+3)

The Pick: BUF

Confidence: 15

Breakdown: This line might be one of the best of the week. The undefeated Bills travel to Vegas, where the Raiders are coming off that brutal loss to New England. Buffalo almost gave the game away to the Rams last week, but that won't happen again. Josh Allen has looked like a worthy MVP candidate, and the Bills have done a great job at surrounding him with talent on offense. The defense should hold up well against Josh Jacobs as well, making this one feel like a runaway for the Bills. I'll gladly lay the points with the road favorite in this one.

PHI @ SF (-6.5)

The Pick: PHI

Confidence: 2

Breakdown: The Eagles and Carson Wentz have not shown anything to warrant this pick. The 49ers should get back George Kittle, and Nick Mullens was able to torch a poor Giants defense on the road last week. This week they'll get to play out west, where the Eagles are looking to save their season in week 4. Given how poor the NFC East is, a win here could go a long way in turning things around for them. Carson Wentz has something to prove, and Doug Pederson's job might be on the hot seat if they continue to drop games in miserable fashion. This line started at the Eagles +3, which had everyone scramble to place their bet on the 49ers. With the line creeping back up, I'll take the Eagles this week.

ATL @ GB (-7)

The Pick: GB

Confidence: 12

Breakdown: Green Bay's offense has been the best in football, led by Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field has been an absolute force in his career. The Falcons defense is one of the worst in football. They will not be able to slow down Green Bay, despite fighting for Dan Quinn's job (again). While the Falcons should have more firepower on offense w/ Julio Jones likely back, the Packers defense has done a good job at getting stops when it counts. 7 points feels like a lot in this one, but don't overthink it. The Packers should get the job done.

- - - CHEDDAR JACK - - -

cheddarjack@betthefarm.net