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Cheddar Jack's Week 9 NFL Picks ATS & Confidence

Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick, with 16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games. (Note: some of the lines may have moved since initially being posted on Tuesdays)

Last week was.......YIKES!! In my defense, the sportsbooks had a helluva day. We'll be bouncing back BIG TIME this week.


Week 8 Results

ATS: 2-12

Confidence Pts: 23


Season Total

ATS: 61-59

Confidence Pts: 505

WEEK 9 PICKS


GB @ SF (+5.5)

The Pick: GB

Confidence: 14

Breakdown: This line has since shifted, given the 49ers will be without almost all of their playmakers on offense this week. Aaron Jones is questionable for the Packers, but if he suits up, I don't see any way the 49ers can keep pace with GB in this game, even at home. The Packers defense did look miserable in MN last week, so they'll be playing with something to prove. I'll take the Pack to bounce back in a big way and get some NFC Championship Game revenge on the banged-up 49ers.


DEN @ ATL (-4)

The Pick: ATL

Confidence: 5

Breakdown: The Falcons are coming off some extra rest, having played last Thursday against the Panthers. They surprisingly pulled off the upset on the road, showing this team is still out there fighting. The Broncos pulled of a miraculous comeback against the Chargers last week, and Drew Lock looked pretty good under center for them. This feels like a spot where the Broncos will be a popular pick amongst bettors, but I see the Falcons holding strong at home and letting Matt Ryan air it out all over the place.


HOU @ JAX (+7)

The Pick: HOU

Confidence: 12

Breakdown: The Texans and Jags are each coming off a bye week with extra time to prepare. While 7 points feels like it's too much in a divisional game between bad teams, the Jags don't know who will be the starting QB come Sunday. After all the talk about the Texans looking to sell at the deadline, they remained pat and will be looking to avoid a third straight loss. When these teams matched up in week 5, Deshaun Watson slang it for 359 yards and 3 TDs, and Cooks, Cobb, and Fuller all had pretty solid days. It shouldn't go unnoticed that David Johnson had his best day on the ground, either. I don't see that narrative changing this time around, as the Jags defense is pretty horrendous. I'll lay the points w/ the Texans in this one, who should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard.


NYG @ WAS (-3)

The Pick: NYG

Confidence: 7

Breakdown: The Giants head in to Washington to face a the Football Team that's coming off a bye week. Prior to that they thrashed the Cowboys on the road. These teams met in week 6, with the Giants edging out a 1 point victory at home. The Giants have been in their fair share of close games this year, with their last 4 being decided by 3 points or less. It seems like their defense is keeping them competitive, and I see that being the case on Sunday, as Washington's offense under Kyle Allen hasn't been stellar. If the G-Men can slow down Gibson and McLaurin, they should be able to put up enough points to potentially win this one outright. The Giants have also looked much better since getting Shepard back on offense, and they might have Devonta Freeman back this week too. I'll take the G-Men to pull the upset here, as Daniel Jones has had Washington's number thus far in his career.


DET @ MIN (-4)

The Pick: MIN

Confidence: 13

Breakdown: Minnesota shocked the world last week, showing up to Lambeau and running all over the Packers defense. Kirk Cousins barely had to throw the ball in that one, with Dalvin Cook scoring a whopping 4 TD's. The Lions got destroyed by Indianapolis, one of my only good predictions last week. The Lions will now be without Stafford, as he's been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list. This Lions team goes as Stafford goes. Without him, they really don't stand a chance in this one. The spread has yet to be announced since Stafford was declared out, but I'm guessing it could be double-digits. This is one bet I'll be hammering this week, but if the spread gets over 11, I'd be a bit more cautious.


CAR @ KC (-10.5)

The Pick: KC

Confidence: 8

Breakdown: The Panthers are likely to get star RB Christian McCaffrey back this week, which should be a huge boost to an offense that's actually been pretty strong under Bridgewater this year, even without him. The Panthers are coming off a disappointing TNF loss to the Falcons, and the Chiefs destroyed the Jets last week without having to do much. We all know the Chiefs are able to light up the scoreboard pretty quickly, and I don't see that being a problem against a very average Panthers defense. While the Panthers could get lucky and back-door cover in a competitive one, I'd say it's much more likely that the Chiefs handle them easily at home.


BAL @ IND (+2.5)

The Pick: IND

Confidence: 3

Breakdown: Baltimore dropped an important game at home to the Steelers last week, and Lamar Jackson has been no-where near the caliber of QB he was last year. The Baltimore defense has also dropped off since last year, making it even more difficult for them to win games. They're still running the ball pretty effectively but that's about it. The Colts defense is one of the best in the league. I say this pretty much week-in and week-out, but defenses that can lock opponents up, make it much easier for the offense to operate efficiently. The Colts destroyed the Lions last week, and Philip Rivers has more left in the tank than folks think. If they can establish the ground game against this Baltimore front, they could be in for a huge victory and put themselves at 6-2 on the year.


CHI @ TEN (-5.5)

The Pick: TEN

Confidence: 10

Breakdown: I'm about to contradict myself here, as the Bears defense has been pretty solid all year too, and the only thing really keeping them in games. They narrowly lost to the Saints in OT last week, and the Titans are coming off a dud game against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. This is a big bounce-back spot for Tennessee, as they look to prove they still belong in the conversation as contenders in the AFC. I anticipate the Titans sticking to the ground game w/ Henry, who hasn't really put up a bad game all year. That should open up some big plays for stud receiver AJ Brown. I like the Titans to win this by at least a TD, but could see them pulling away big in this one.


SEA @ BUF (+3)

The Pick: BUF

Confidence: 6

Breakdown: Josh Allen has come back down to earth big time in the past few weeks. He threw for just over 150 yards last week in a win against the Patriots, as they relied heavily on the ground game w/ Singletary and Moss. Moss looked pretty solid coming back from injury, and the Bills should be able to have their way with this Seattle defense on the ground and through the air. I expect the Bills to try to control the ball and keep Wilson and co. off the field. While the Bills defense hasn't been as good as we projected this year, they still have enough play makers to keep Lockett and Metcalf somewhat in check. Given the Bills Mafia is playing at home and Seattle's heading cross-country for an early game, I think this bodes well for the Bills to pull the upset in this one.


LV @ LAC (-1.5)

The Pick: LV

Confidence: 2

Breakdown: The Chargers blew another game against the Broncos last week, as they just can't find a way to close out games. Justin Herbert has been a stud, but he can't do it alone. The Raiders got what I'd consider an impressive victory last week in Cleveland, and ran the ball against a fairly solid Cleveland front. The Chargers will need to stop Josh Jacobs in order to have a shot at winning this one. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS this year, but the Raiders have found a way to win games this year and need another one here if they want a shot at a Wild Card bid. I think Derek Carr has embraced his role as a game manager, and is certainly making less mistakes than in years past. I'll take the Raiders to head into LA and get the win.


PIT @ DAL (+14)

The Pick: PIT

Confidence: 9

Breakdown: Not going to spend a lot of time breaking this one down. One of the best defenses in the league is traveling to Jerry's world to take on the Cowboys with a practice-squad QB under center. The Steelers will remain undefeated after this one. Two touchdowns is a lot, but Dallas' defense has been awful and the Steelers have playmakers all over on offense. Big day for Big Ben and the boys.


MIA @ ARI (-5)

The Pick: ARI

Confidence: 11

Breakdown: Tua got a win in his first NFL start against a good Rams team. I'm not certain, however, if the Rams lost that game or Tua won it. The Dolphins offense did very little against the Rams, with Tua throwing for under 100 yards and the offense only generating 145 yds in total!! Of course there are going to be growing pains with a rookie QB, but I think those pains continue this week. The Dolphins defense isn't going to be able to put up points for them every week, and the Cardinals offense has been electric in their past three games (all wins). Kyler Murray and co. are coming off a bye week with extra time to prepare, but they'll be without Kenyan Drake, which actually might work in their favor. Chase Edmonds has been far more efficient with his touches this year, and could be in for a big day against Miami. I'll lay the points with the Cardinals until Tua's offense shows me something.


NO @ TB (-5)

The Pick: NO

Confidence: 4

Breakdown: Finally, a Sunday night game we can actually get behind. These primetime games have been pretty brutal this year, but this one should be a treat in an all-important NFC South matchup. The Bucs squeaked out a win in the Big Apple on Monday, and Tom Brady didn't really look like himself in that one. The Saints got an OT win in Chicago, and a win against Tampa here means they're back in the drivers seat for the division. I'm not certain they can pull the upset on the road, and tend to think the Bucs will win this one. But I do think they can keep it closer than a 5 point game, as this should be a tight battle. Give me the points with the Saints here.


NE @ NYJ (+7)

The Pick: NYJ

Confidence: 1

Breakdown: Yuck. Will anyone be watching this game? Why do they continue to put the Jets in primetime? Are there any Jets fans left? Well, I guess this week I'll be a Jets fan. In what's likely to be an ugly matchup, the Patriots will head into New York looking to bounce back from a close loss to the Bills. The Jets should be able to stifle the Pats running game a bit, and they don't have playmakers at WR that can ball. Might be a gut call, but the Jets have to cover at least one spread this year, right?!


- - - CHEDDAR JACK - - -

cheddarjack@betthefarm.net

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