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Cheddar Jack's Week 8 NFL Picks ATS & Confidence

Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick, with 16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games. (Note: some of the lines may have moved since initially being posted on Tuesdays)



Week 7 Results

ATS: 10-3

Confidence Pts: 81


Season Total

ATS: 59-45

Confidence Pts: 482

WEEK 8 PICKS


ATL @ CAR (-2.5)

The Pick: CAR

Confidence: 8

Breakdown: The Panthers will host the Falcons on TNF, coming off their second straight loss, as they fell to the Saints in a close one last week. The Falcons, meanwhile, unsurprisingly found another way to lose a close game against Detroit. Ultimately, you can't blame Gurley for scoring the touchdown (he shouldn't have), as the defense allowed Stafford to trounce down the field and score. The Falcons defense has been abysmal all year. These teams last met a few weeks ago, and that was the last time the Panthers won a game. The Falcons played that one without Julio Jones, however, and have since fired their head coach. Surprisingly, Atlanta's defense hasn't been terrible against the run this year, but their pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Teddy Bridgewater has been playing great for the Panthers, and I think he continues to do so at home on TNF. Playing at home w/ less than a field goal to lay in what should be a pick 'em, I'll take the home team that's looked like the better team this year.


PIT @ BAL (-3.5)

The Pick: BAL

Confidence: 7

Breakdown: Baltimore hosts the undefeated Steelers this week, in a game with huge AFC seeding implications. Baltimore is coming off a bye week, while Pittsburgh edged out Tennessee for a nice road victory last week. Baltimore knows how important this game is, and John Harbaugh should have a few things up his sleeve to counter the tough Pitt defense this week. I think they start to run w/ Lamar Jackson a lot more than they have all season, which will get Pitt's defense moving forward early, opening up big plays in the passing game for Hollywood and Andrews. Baltimore's defense is also still tough, and should play well at home. Pittsburgh's on a roll, but they're going to lose a few along the way, and I certainly think this is one of them.


LAR @ MIA (+3.5)

The Pick: LAR

Confidence: 13

Breakdown: This one's a bit of a mystery, as we have no idea what the Dolphins are going to look like with Tua under center. They're coming off a bye so he should be well-prepared w/ the offensive gameplan, which should help him in his first career start. But the Rams defense is no cupcake by any means, and Aaron Donald has been an absolute monster. Taking a flyer on the Dolphins to come out hot in Tua's first start is something I'm not going to do here, given that the Rams are almost assuredly a playoff team who sit at 5-2 despite not playing their best football yet this year. Too many unknowns w/ the Fins, so I'll lay the points w/ the road favorite in this one.


NYJ @ KC (-19)

The Pick: NYJ

Confidence: 1

Breakdown: This line opened at 21, with the early bettors hoping the Jets can over 3 TD's against the Chiefs. They were able to cover last week against the Bills, and actually looked like they were poised to win the game for a bit. That's why this line is a bit of a mystery to me. The Chiefs smashed the Broncos on the road last week, with the offense having to do little, as they had a defensive and special teams TD. Unless they find another one of those against the Jets this week (which they could), I think the Jets can keep this game within two scores. Sam Darnold didn't look great again, but they do have more passing options now w/ Crowder and Mims getting healthy. The Chiefs defense has been tough at home, but it's hard to lay 3 scores in this one, even with the Chiefs. I'll be crossing my fingers the Jets show up to play like they did against the Bills last week.


MIN @ GB (-6.5)

The Pick: GB

Confidence: 12

Breakdown: Green Bay at home under Aaron Rodgers = Lights Out. The Vikings may get Dalvin Cook back this week, but the Packers defense seems like it's starting to find its stride a bit and getting healthier. That's bad news for Kirk Cousins and the gang. While bettors are thinking the Vikings can keep it close in a rivalry matchup, the Packers are scoring at will on folks, and it doesn't matter who's in their lineup at this point. Aaron Jones will likely return, and there's a chance #2 WR Allen Lazard could be back as well. Aaron Rodgers should have no trouble continuing to light up the scoreboard against a terrible Vikings defense. Packers in a route.


IND @ DET(+3)

The Pick: IND

Confidence: 10

Breakdown: The Detroit Lions did just enough to get a win last Sunday.....or did the Falcons do just enough to lose? Either way, neither team looked like much to fear in that one, with both offenses moving the ball without a lot of points. Detroit won't find much success moving the ball against Indy's defense on Sunday, as they've been a top 5 defense in nearly every metric this season. I tend to lean on teams that are coming off bye weeks, as extra preparation and rest should serve them well, and in this case, I think that couldn't be more true for the Colts. The old saying is "defense travels" and the Colts have a good one heading into Detroit. I'll take the road favorite in this one.


LV @ CLE (-2.5)

The Pick: CLE

Confidence: 11

Breakdown: The Raiders looked like who we thought they were against the Bucs last week, getting thrashed at home coming off their bye week. I'm not quite sure what to make of them, as they have quality wins against the Saints and Chiefs. I think those wins might be outliers in what should ultimately be another losing season for them, and possibly Derek Carr's last as the starter. The Browns edged out a close win against a young Cincinnati team last week, but the defense still gave up 34 points to a rookie QB. Derek Carr has been pretty solid for the Raiders this year, and Baker Mayfield will now be without Odell Beckham Jr. The Beckham loss might not be a huge factor this week for the Browns, as the Raiders defense has been pretty abysmal this year. The Browns haven't been much better, but they're playing at home and laying less than a field goal. For that reason, I'll lay the couple points w/ the home team in this one, in what should be a high scoring affair.


TEN @ CIN (+5.5)

The Pick: CIN

Confidence: 9

Breakdown: The Titans lost their first game to a solid Pittsburgh team last week at home, while the Bengals narrowly missed beating Cleveland for the 2nd time this year. Joe Burrow is a stud, there's really no questioning that. Joe Mixon should likely be back from his brief absence, providing them with more pop on offense this week. The Bengals have been solid ATS this year, as Joe Burrow seems to come alive late to keep his team in it. What happens if they actually come out firing from the get-go? I think if the Bengals can get up on the Titans early, playing from behind will be a challenge for Tennessee. I like the home team to cover in this one, and possibly hand the Titans their 2nd straight loss.


NE @ BUF (-3.5)

The Pick: BUF

Confidence: 14

Breakdown: New England's dynasty has come to an end. While Belichick is a mastermind, without Brady the Patriots are beatable, week in and week out. Cam Newton was awful last week, and hasn't looked all that great throwing the ball all year long. The Patriots used to be huge on short dump offs and timing routes, but that doesn't seem to be Cam's strong suit. He needs scheme or better playmakers to be dangerous, of which he seems to have neither right now. The Bills were in a dogfight with the Jets last week, and have something to prove playing against what used to be the perennial favorite in the AFC east. This is finally Josh Allen's moment to let everyone know the AFC east is his for years-to-come. I love the Bills at home in this spot.


LAC @ DEN (+3)

The Pick: LAC

Confidence: 6

Breakdown: The Chargers w/ Justin Herbert at the helm have looked dynamite. They beat a bad Jacksonville team last week, but did so with ease. Their defense still gave up more points than you'd like to see, but I still think they're above-average. The Broncos were stomped by the Chiefs on their home turf, and are most assuredly looking for revenge and to keep their season alive. Both teams are sitting at 2-4 and are jockeying for position in the AFC west standings. I love rockin' with home dawgs, but in this case, I don't think Denver has the talent on the offensive or defensive line to combat the Chargers. Nor has Drew Lock looked anything like Herbert and he's had more chances. I'll take the Chargers in this one.


NO @ CHI (+4)

The Pick: CHI

Confidence: 4

Breakdown: The Saints are riding high off a key division win against the Panthers last week, while the Bears are coming off a loss on MNF to a good Rams team. They lost at home, but Soldier field is a tough place to play when the weather gets cold. I don't think they drop two in a row at home, despite a solid Saints team coming to town. The Bears defense is still tough, but they'll need to make some plays on offense, which I suspect them to do. Matt Nagy was an Andy Reid understudy, and I think he finally pulls some tricks out of his belt to get them back on track here. While I'm not confident the Bears win the game outright, I'd still pick them to keep it within a field goal playing at home.


SF @ SEA (-3)

The Pick: SF

Confidence: 3

Breakdown: The Seahawks lost a heartbreaker last week to Arizona in overtime. It was, as we'd suspect, a shootout between two mobile QBs. This game will be played much differently, as I think both teams try to control the ball as much as they can. Chris Carson is unlikely to play, so we don't know who will be running the ball for Seattle. While they've got some legitimate threats outside in Lockett and Metcalf, the 49ers have looked strong the past few weeks, and their run game appears to be clicking like it did last year. In an all-important game to keep the 49ers in the division (and playoff) race, I'll take the underdog to pull an upset in Seattle, without their coveted 12th man behind them.


DAL @ PHI (-7.5)

The Pick: DAL

Confidence: 5

Breakdown: WOOOOOOOOF. The NFC east is ugly. And I expect this game to be as well. Carson Wentz and the boys are atop the division, but the Cowboys have no quit in them. They've looked pretty awful the past few weeks, but in gambling terms, that means you're due, right? The Cowboys should be able to keep this game within a touchdown, in a live-or-die type moment on Sunday Night Football (with no one watching). Everyone in Dallas is playing for their livelihood right now, and I expect that to show up big time on Sunday night.


TB @ NYG (+10.5)

The Pick: NYG

Confidence: 2

Breakdown: The Giants were narrow losers to Philly last week, and the Bucs smashed the Raiders at home. Tom Brady and the crew seem to be clicking, and they'll be getting a new weapon next week in Antonio Brown. We'll see how that plays out, but for the time-being, they'll be without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans has been quite absent this year. I think the Bucs will be able to run the ball pretty effectively, and their defense has been what's winning them games. But the Giants are starting to find a few playmakers on offense in Sterling Shepard and (maybe) Wayne Gallman, who's running for his NFL livelihood. In a home game with the bright lights, I'll take the home team to cover. They're tired of hearing about how pathetic they are, and this is essentially they're Super Bowl game against an actual potential Super Bowl team.


- - - CHEDDAR JACK - - -

cheddarjack@betthefarm.net

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