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Cheddar Jack's Week 7 Picks ATS & Confidence

Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick, with 16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games. (Note: some of the lines may have moved since initially being posted on Tuesdays)

Week 6 Results

ATS: 8-6

Confidence Pts: 52


Season Total

ATS: 48-42

Confidence Pts: 401

WEEK 7 PICKS


NYG @ PHI (-3.5)

The Pick: PHI

Confidence: 4

Breakdown: Philly hosts a home game against their division-rival Giants, after nearly completing a comeback last week against the Ravens. Philly falls behind in games too early, which has been their downfall. The return of DeSean Jackson should help, but he might be shadowed by James Bradberry all game. In which case, Wentz should be able to find Ward and Fulgham for some open looks. They'll be without Miles Sanders as well, so Boston Scott will have to at least make their presence felt on the ground. In a home game, against a Giants team that hasn't shown much of anything this year, I'll take the Birds and lay the points.


GB @ HOU (+3.5)

The Pick: GB

Confidence: 14

Breakdown: Green Bay finally came down-to-earth in Tampa last week, and Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career. Houston went to Tennessee and had a dog-fight, losing in OT to the undefeated Titans. Houston seems to be finding its stride a bit, which is why I think this line is where it is. A couple weeks ago this looked like the makings of a TD + line in favor of the Green & Gold. This is a 'what have you done for me lately' league, so I understand the hesitation, but GB is still one of the best teams in the league. I'll take them to bounce-back, as Rodgers has tended to do in his career after a loss.


PIT @ TEN (+2)

The Pick: PIT

Confidence: 8

Breakdown: The line in this one has actually swung in favor of the Titans, with them being favored by 1 at a lot of books. The Titans are at home, coming off a shootout against the Texans. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, cruised over the ascending Browns last week without breaking a sweat. These two teams appear to be a mirror of one another, with the difference being that I think the Steelers have an elite defense, and the Titans have been scraping by against inferior opponents (Jags, Vikings, Broncos). Tannehill and company have looked great since getting AJ Brown back, and Derrick Henry has been pummeling folks. I don't know that he'll find it to be that easy against the Steelers front 7 this week, however. In what is truly a pick-em matchup, I'll go with the Steelers, whose offense seems to be humming and finding more playmakers by the day.


DAL @ WAS (+3.5)

The Pick: WAS

Confidence: 1

Breakdown: Dallas certainly has more playmakers than the Football Team does, but Andy Dalton looked lost last week playing at home against an average (at best) Cardinals defense. I like Washington's defense more than AZ, so I think Dalton could be in for another tough day here. Kyle Allen looked comfortable enough under center, and Washington made a point to get the ball out of his hands quickly last week. They were also pretty sound in terms of their run-game as well, and we all know Dallas' defense has plenty of holes to be found. I think Zeke could have a tough time finding room to run, and don't think Dalton's arm can do enough to pull away from Washington. I'll take the home dogs in this one.


BUF @ NYJ (-12)

The Pick: BUF

Confidence: 7

Breakdown: Don't bet on the Jets. Just don't do it. That's the breakdown.


CAR @ NO (-7.5)

The Pick: CAR

Confidence: 10

Breakdown: New Orleans is always tough at home, but I get the sense they might not have Michael Thomas available for this game, who's still nursing an injury. If that's the case, they've looked lost without him on offense. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater is having a nice season, finding targets like Robby Anderson, Mike Davis, and company. Carolina has been a nice surprise in the division, and I think they're still being overlooked by Vegas here. In what I feel should be closer to a 4 point line, I'll gladly bet on the Panthers to keep this divisional game close, and potentially pull an upset if they can keep Kamara in check out of the backfield.


CLE @ CIN (+3.5)

The Pick: CIN

Confidence: 2

Breakdown: A rematch from week 2, the Bengals will host the Brownies, looking for revenge against Mayfield and company. Last time these guys matched up, it was point points points, with Cleveland winning 35 to 30 (on a back-door cover by Cincy). Cincinnati has looked like a much better team since then, and Cleveland has been hit or miss this year. Their win against Dallas doesn't look so great anymore, with their best win of the season probably coming against Indy at home. Cincinnati lost at Indy this past weekend, but it was a close one. I think the Bengals are trending upward, but the Browns should be looking for a big-win to get back in the chase for the division. Joe Burrow is still a stud, and I think he gets the best of Mayfield in this one. Give me the home team as underdogs!


DET @ ATL (-3)

The Pick: DET

Confidence: 3

Breakdown: Coming off a bye, the Lions won handily against the Jags last week, while the Falcons throttled the Vikings for their first win of the year. There's a lot of talk in Atlanta about potentially dealing both Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, who both showed they can still play last week. Ridley has been the best receiver all year, and the defense made enough stops against Kirk (puke) Cousins to get a win. But I'm not convinced this team's any good, as the Vikings have been so inconsistent, and were without Dalvin Cook. The Lions, meanwhile, have been in close games all year w/ the exception of the Packers in week 2. They have to be feeling good about D'Andre Swift's outlook, and I think the more they get him involved and transition Peterson out, the better of they'll be. That should continue this week, and I think they get a road-win in the dome.


SEA @ ARI (+3.5) The Pick: SEA

Confidence: 13

Breakdown: If memory serves me correctly, Pete Carroll hasn't been all that great coming off bye weeks, which make this pick a little concerning. The Cardinals have also steam-rolled their last two opponents, the Cowboys and Jets. Prior to that, however, they lost to the Panthers and Lions. So the questions is: how good are they really? Kyler is a stud, and I'm sure he'd like nothing more than to best MVP contender Russell Wilson, especially at home. But the Seahawks shouldn't have any trouble moving the ball against a suspect Arizona defense. Chris Carson with some fresh legs is something to be feared. I'll take the Seahawks to get the job done on the road.


JAX @ LAC (-8)

The Pick: LAC

Confidence: 6

Breakdown: The Jags got torched by the Lions last week, while Justin Herbert and the fellas had a week to rest up. The Jags also got banged up, with several key defensive starters questionable to play this week (Jack, Allen). Minshew hasn't been very good this year, but their bright spot has been James Robinson, who seems to be coming down to earth as well after a hot start. The Chargers defense hasn't been as good as projected coming into the year, but should feel pretty good coming off a bye and at-home. Herbert's still got plenty of weapons on offense without Ekeler, and should be able to move the ball against Jacksonville with ease. While 8 seems like a lot to lay in this one, it could be a rout by the Chargers.


KC @ DEN (+9)

The Pick: KC

Confidence: 12

Breakdown: Denver may have been last week's biggest surprise, traveling to Foxborough and taking down the Patriots. Neither team looked very strong in that one, with Denver failing to score a touchdown all day. Now they'll get the reigning Super Bowl Champs at home, who recently added LeVeon Bell to the mix. Despite missing Von Miller, the Broncos defense has been pretty sound this year. The Chiefs have been hit or miss, but are coming off a game in which they held Buffalo to only 17 points at home, so they've got to be feeling good there. You know what they say? The ball travels farther in the thin Denver air. To me, that sounds like music to Patrick Mahomes' ears. I'll take the favorites in this one.


SF @ NE (-2.5)

The Pick: SF

Confidence: 5

Breakdown: The Pats are at home again, after putting up a stinker against the Broncos. The 49ers are coming off a nice divisional win against the Rams, and are look to re-assert themselves as one of the best in the NFC. Jimmy Garappolo makes his return to Foxborough, looking to prove the Pats ultimately made a mistake by trading him a few years ago. I think this 'underdog, w/ somehing-to-prove' mantra fits the 49ers well, and Shanahan will be certainly ready to prove he should be considered one of the best coaches in football by beating Belichick. This has all the makings of a 49ers revenge game, and I'm here for it. I also like the fact it's not an early game, so the 49ers should be well-acclimated to handle the time zone adjustment. I'll take the underdogs in this one too.


TB @ LV (+3)

The Pick: TB

Confidence: 9

Breakdown: I noticed I've picked quite a few road-teams to get the job done this week, and that theme continues here. After throttling the Packers last week, I'm not sure why this line is so low? Sure, the Raiders are coming off a bye-week with extra time to prepare and get healthy, but Tom Brady's offense barely had to do anything to win against the Packers last week. Their defense looked fierce against one of the better offensive lines (and offenses in general) in football. I'm not sure how that changes against the Raiders. The Raiders have some quality wins this year (New Orleans, Carolina, Kansas City), which I think is skewing Vegas' odds in this one. It's ultimately a 'what have you done for me lately' league, and in this case, the Bucs should be favored by several more points here. I'll take Tom Brady and company to get a win in Sin City.


CHI @ LAR (-5.5)

The Pick: LAR

Confidence: 11

Breakdown: The Bears came up big last week as one of my best bets to win at home against the Panthers. The Rams, as I also predicted, struggled against a scrappy 49ers team desperate for a win. 5.5 points seems like a lot in this one, in what should be a battle of tough defenses. The Rams have Jalen Ramsey to counter Allen Robinson, and I don't think David Montgomery finds a lot of running room against a stout Rams front seven. Given those two points, I don't know where Chicago is going to come up with enough points to keep this game close. It also feels like we're long overdue for a monster Cooper Kupp game, and I think this might be the one, as the Bears are much more vulnerable in the secondary than on the ground. I'll lay the points w/ the home team in this one.



- - - CHEDDAR JACK - - -

cheddarjack@betthefarm.net

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