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Cheddar Jack's Week 6 NFL Picks ATS & Confidence


Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick, with 16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games. (Note: some of the lines may have moved since initially being posted on Tuesdays)



WOW. Last week was brutal......but all gamblers know, it's a week-to-week league, and you're always on the verge of a #heater ! Let's put that one behind us and get back to #WinnersOnly



Week 5 Results

ATS: 3-10

Confidence Pts: 31


Season Total

ATS: 40-36

Confidence Pts: 349

WEEK 5 PICKS


DEN @ NE (-8.5)

The Pick: NE

Confidence: 14

Breakdown: The Pats and Broncos last took the field 2 weeks ago, so both teams should be well rested for this battle in Foxborough. The Broncos are getting Drew Lock back, but even when they've played games w/ him as a starter this year, their offense hasn't looked like anything to fear. Without Melvin Gordon, they're going to have a hard time getting anything going on the ground, and Lock isn't good enough to beat a pretty stout NE defense with his arm alone. I like the Pats here, as they're better on both sides of the ball, and Belichick with extra time to prepare has always been dangerous.


DET @ JAX (+3.5)

The Pick: DET

Confidence: 11

Breakdown: The Jags went on the road to Houston last week and allowed the Texans their first win of the year. The Lions are coming off a bye and should be well-rested to face a Jags team that's still banged up. James Robinson has been sensational for the Jags, and should have a nice day. But Matthew Stafford is an elite QB in this league, and should have healthy weapons around him which will making scoring on the Jags a piece of cake. I'll take the Lions in this one.


CHI @ CAR (-2.5)

The Pick: CHI

Confidence: 9

Breakdown: I expect this game to be an ugly one, as the Panthers have looked good on offense but they haven't exactly played elite defenses. While I don't think the Bears defense is as good as years past, they're still pretty strong up front and Carolina will need to lean on Teddy Bridgewater's arm to get anything going here. Robby Anderson has been his go-to target, but one of these days DJ Moore is going to light it up. The Bears, meanwhile, lack playmakers outside of Robinson on offense, so someone's going to need to step up. In what should be a close one, I'll side with the Bears on the road in this spot and take the points. We'll see if Big Dick Nick can actually show up big, in an important game to keep pace w/ the Packers in the NFC North.


CLE @ PIT (-3.5)

The Pick: PIT

Confidence: 10

Breakdown: One of the best games of the week, the Browns head to Heinz field, looking for the win that justifies them as a threat in not only the AFC North, but the AFC. The Browns have looked great the past couple weeks, including last weeks win against a tough Colts team. They were at home, in that one, however. This time they'll be on Big Ben's turf, and the Steelers know how important this game is to their playoff hopes and seeding as well. While I'd like that line to be 3, I'll still back the Steelers in this spot at -3.5, given their defense should be able to make key stops against the Browns.


BAL @ PHI (+7.5)

The Pick: PHI

Confidence: 4

Breakdown: No team has been a bigger mystery than the Eagles to me this season. While Wentz has without a doubt looked pretty bad, he also hasn't had much time to throw and is throwing to guys like Travis Fulgham and Greg Ward. Zach Ertz has been non-existent the past couple weeks, so I think they make a point to get him back involved. They were able to put up nearly 30 points on a Steelers defense that's considered top-3 in the league, and Miles Sanders is starting to find his stride a bit for their backfield. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are definitely the better team, but w/ the home-team laying over a touchdown in this one, I'll take the points w/ the Eagles.


WAS @ NYG (-3)

The Pick: WAS

Confidence: 1

Breakdown: One of the least-relevant games on the schedule this week, so I won't touch on this pick too much. The Redskins actually looked decent w/ Kyle Allen under center. The Giants have been terrible, but Devonta Freeman might be getting something going for them on offense. I don't really like this pick either way, and would prefer to stay away from the game, but I'll take the points and pray.


ATL @ MIN (-3.5)

The Pick: MIN

Confidence: 13

Breakdown: The Falcons begin a new-era after moving on from Dan Quinn FINALLY. Minnesota narrowly lost to Seattle on SNF last week, and were a yard away from winning that game. The Falcons, with all their offensive weapons, managed 16 points at home against a suspect Panthers defense. These teams are trending in opposite directions at this time, and I'm happy to lay the points w/ MN at home in a must-win game against an inferior opponent.


CIN @ IND (-8)

The Pick: IND

Confidence: 7

Breakdown: The Ravens ran all over this Bengals team last week, and Joe Burrow's offense was only able to muster up 3 points against them. I don't think the Ravens defense is all that great, which makes that performance even worse. The Colts, meanwhile, struggled to stop the Browns on the road. Philip Rivers cannot continue to turn the ball over for the Colts if they want to win ball games. I see them taking a more conservative approach to the game, and leaning on Jonathan Taylor to wear down the Bengals defense. I think the Colts defense is very solid, and should be able to come up w/ enough turnovers and stops against Cincy to win by double-digits in this one.


HOU @ TEN (-5.5)

The Pick: HOU

Confidence: 2

Breakdown: The undefeated Titans put up an eye-opening performance against the Bills last week. People continue to doubt them, and Tannehill and the gang continue to show up. The Texans got their first win last week w/ a new HC, and Deshaun Watson finally had a big game for them that we've all been waiting for (although it was against the Jags). I question whether or not Tennessee's defense can put up another performance like they did against Buffalo, and Houston always seems to have their number in these divisional games. I think this is a let-down spot for TN, as Henry might have a tough time grinding out yards against Houston's front 7. I'll take the underdog in this close divisional game.


NYJ @ MIA (-8)

The Pick: MIA

Confidence: 8

Breakdown: I don't know if the Dolphins should ever be favored by over a touchdown to anyone in this league. Fitzmagic was in full form last week against the 49ers on the road, and the Jets once again looked lost at home against the Cardinals. Sam Darnold is clearly not the answer at QB, and they just released their best playmaker in Leveon Bell. These teams feel like they're trending in opposite directions, and the Dolphins have way more playmakers on the offensive side than the Jets. I'm not excited about laying this many points in a divisional game, but man the Jets are bad and I don't know how you can back them at this point and feel good about it.


GB @ TB (+1.5)

The Pick: GB

Confidence: 12

Breakdown: The Packers have looked like the best team in football. The Bucs lost to the Bears last week. Both teams are coming off extra rest, w/ the Packers having two full weeks off. The Packers are getting back their stud DT Kenny Clark, and (maybe? hello Aaron Jones) their best playmaker and Rodger's #1 in Davante Adams. The Bucs, meanwhile, lost their big man and run stopper up front, Vita Vea, for the season. If the Bucs continue to dial up blitzes to create pressure, expect Aaron Rodgers to slice and dice them all day. The Packers should head to Tampa and continue to show the league why they're the favorites in the NFC, if not the entire league.


LAR @ SF (+3.5)

The Pick: SF

Confidence: 3

Breakdown: What happened to the 49ers last week? Jimmy G returned for them, and was subsequently benched last week in the 2nd half while they were getting blown out by the Dolphins. Shanahan said it was a cautious move to protect the QB, but one has to wonder. The Rams handled their business on the road against Washington, and are looking to keep pace w/ Seattle in the division. The 49ers wins this year are against the Jets and Giants, with their losses being the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Eagles. Are they even any good anymore? Shanahan has been able to find ways to win as an underdog in his career, and that's what I'm betting on here. I think the 49ers throw the kitchen-sink at LA in a must-win game.


KC @ BUF (+3.5)

The Pick: KC

Confidence: 6

Breakdown: I just don't see how you bet against the Chiefs w/ Andy Reid coming off a loss. They didn't look bad against the Raiders, but the defense couldn't come up with any stops. In what might determine home-field advantage in the AFC, the Chiefs know this is the one they need to go out and get. That's it, that's the breakdown.


ARI @ DAL (+2.5)

The Pick: DAL

Confidence: 5

Breakdown: The Andy Dalton era begins in Dallas. There are Andy Dalton believers out there, and I guess you have to consider me somewhat in that boat. I think Andy should be able to manage the game effectively enough to grind out wins, given the amount of playmakers they have on offense. CeeDee Lamb is awesome. Zeke is still effective. Amari Cooper is still there. Gallup could be a #1 wideout on a lot of football teams. They have the pieces in place around him for him to have success, but it's up to him to do it. McCarthy won't get any slack w/ a backup QB, as they brought on Dalton for this exact scenario. The division is by no-means out of reach for the Cowboys, but losing this game puts them in panic-mode. The Cardinals, meanwhile, haven't looked like a team ready to take the jump. They have wins against Washington, 49ers, and Jets, with losses against the Panthers and Lions. I think the Dallas will have it's hands full with Kyler, but I'm not sure AZ defense can stop anybody. I'll take the home dawg!



- - - CHEDDAR JACK - - -

cheddarjack@betthefarm.net

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