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  • Cheddar Jack

Cheddar Jack's Week 11 NFL Picks ATS & Confidence

Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick, with 16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games. (Note: some of the lines may have moved since initially being posted on Tuesdays)

Ohhhhh boy, Red Sunday struck hard!! There's only up to go from here, and I've had far too many winning weeks to let last week get me down. Let's bounce back big time in week 11, in what feels like a board that's ripe for the picking!!

Week 10 Results

ATS: 3-10-1

Confidence Pts: 28

Season Total

ATS: 73-72-1

Confidence Pts: 595


ARI @ SEA (-3)

The Pick: ARI

Confidence: 3

Breakdown: Seattle's really struggled in the past several weeks, losing 3 of their last 4. Arizona comes to town looking to affirm it's position at the top of the NFC West, in what is shaping up to be one of the most heated division races this year. Arizona needed that D-Hop hail mary badly last week to beat a good Bills team at home. The Seahawks have looked lost the past few weeks without Chris Carson there to establish a presence on the ground. If Carson ends up playing, Seattle might cover this spread, as I don't see Arizona being able to contain him. However, the Seahawks have been so bad on defense this year, I don't see any way you can pick them in this game, despite being at home. I'll take the dogs in this one.

NE @ HOU (+2.5)

The Pick: NE

Confidence: 8

Breakdown: Houston looked terrible against the Browns last week, losing by 3 but should've been by double-digits (C'MON CHUBB YOU GOTTA SCORE THAT BITCH!). New England pulled off a bit of a shocker in beating the Ravens on SNF at home. New England seems to be re-finding its identity on offense, and Cam knows that he's playing not only for his job this year, but his job as a QB in the NFL moving forward. New England has been running the ball effectively, and the Texans can't stop the run. This should be a problem for Houston. Deshaun Watson is always capable of putting the team on his back, but we haven't seen him do that much this year. Because of that, I'll take NE who appears to be trending in the right direction to try to stay in contention for a Wild Card spot. They need this win more.

TEN @ BAL (-6.5)

The Pick: BAL

Confidence: 9

Breakdown: The Titans got shellacked at home by the Colts last week, and fell out of first place in their division as a result. Absolutely brutal loss for a team that looked to be on a roll earlier in the year. While they do have a few extra days of rest, I'm not certain it'll make much of a difference here. We recall that this Tennessee team stormed into Baltimore in last years playoffs and handed the AFC favorites a loss, ending their season. Baltimore hasn't forgotten about this, and this is absolutely a revenge game for them. Baltimore needs to get things right, and seem to always play well at home. They know how important this game is, and Lamar Jackson should have a field day against a very average to below-average Titans defense. That Hollywood blowup game didn't come last week, but will it be this week?

PIT @ JAX (+10)

The Pick: PIT

Confidence: 13

Breakdown: Pittsburgh rolled through the Bengals last week in a non-competitive game (to my suprise), while Jacksonville gave Green Bay a run for their money at Lambeau last week. Jake Luton has looked very average under center for the Jags, who were beneficiaries of a few key mistakes by Green Bay in a very windy game. James Robinson won't find any running room against this Pittsburgh team, who are going to have to rely on Luton to have a shot. Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball more effectively than Green Bay in the Jacksonville sunshine, and should route this Jags team pretty easily. If it weren't for the Jags showing last week, this line would probably be closer to 13.5. I'll gladly take the Steelers in this one.

DET @ CAR (-2)

The Pick: CAR

Confidence: 5

Breakdown: This is a bit of an unknown, as both Bridgewater and Stafford are questionable heading into the game. Stafford has a thumb injury, which would seem to be a problem when he throws footballs for a living. Teddy is dealing with a leg injury, so he might have a tough time moving around in the pocket this week. Fortunately for him, the Lions pass rush hasn't been anything to write home about this year. While the Panthers got their doors blown off at home to Tampa last week, they should be hungry to prove they're a team that shouldn't be overlooked by anyone. Detroit eeked out a win at home against Washington, but with a banged up Stafford and heading to Carolina, I'll give the edge to the Panthers who have far-more playmakers on offense right now.

CIN @ WAS (-1.5)

The Pick: WAS

Confidence: 1

Breakdown: Both Washington and Cincy have been in some nail-biters this year, which makes this game pretty much a pick 'em. Cincy got their doors blown off by Pittsburgh last week, and Washington lost a close one in Detroit. Both teams have done well covering the spread and hanging in close games this year, so this one is awfully tough to pick. Washington's pass rush seems to be improving week by week with Chase Young coming into his own, and I think he's going to cause problems for a below-average Cincinnati offensive line. If Burrow can get the ball out of his hands quickly to his playmakers, however, Washington could be in trouble. I think the Washington offense w/comeback player of the year candidate Alex Smith has fared well enough to put up points, and they should be able to against a terrible Bengals defense. I'll take the Football Team to get a W at home.

ATL @ NO (-4.5)

The Pick: ATL

Confidence: 4

Breakdown: Don't look now but prior to their bye week, Atlanta had won 3 out of 4 games, with the 4th game being that absolute embarrassing loss to the Lions by a point on a last second Stafford TD to Hockensen. The Falcons seem to be rolling a little bit here, while New Orleans will adjust to life without Drew Brees for the next few weeks. Jameis Winston is expected to step in, and we all know how much he loves to force the ball places. If he's forcing it to Michael Thomas, he'll probably be in good shape. But the Saints, winners of 6 straight, are due for a slip up at some point. The Falcons always seem to give them trouble, and I think they do this Sunday in the Superdome. I'll take the road team in what feels more like a pick 'em game to me, given the circumstances.

GB @ IND (-2.5)

The Pick: GB

Confidence: 14

Breakdown: Anytime Aaron Rodgers is an underdog, I'll happily take those points. The Colts defense continues to look like one of the best in the league, but they now face easily their toughest challenge of the year against a very efficient Packers offense. The Packers defense will need to start by controlling the Colts ground game, and then forcing Rivers into some errant throws. Rodgers and company should enjoy playing in a dome as opposed to the outdoors of Lambeau, like they have the past couple weeks. Aaron Jones will need to be more involved for the Packers if they want to continue to light up the scoreboard. This should be one of the best games of the week, and I think the Packers re-enter Super Bowl Favorite status this week with a big win on the road in Indy.

PHI @ CLE (-3.5)

The Pick: CLE

Confidence: 6

Breakdown: Philly, oh Philly. Just when you think there was a team pulling away in the garbage NFC East, Philly goes out and lays an egg against the Giants. Carson Wentz doesn't seem at all like the same QB he was a year or two ago, but then again, neither does Baker Mayfield. The Browns have scored a combined 13 points their last two games, which is pathetic for an NFL team. Even more pathetic when you consider it was against the Raiders and the Texans, both at home. I'm not quite sure what to make of either of these teams, but I know that with Chubb back, the Browns have the best player on the field. Sorry Miles Sanders. Because of that, I'll take the home team, in what should be a decent day on the ground for Chubb and Hunt.

MIA @ DEN (+3.5)

The Pick: MIA

Confidence: 12

Breakdown: Drew Lock might not play this week, which ultimately may be a blessing in disguise for the Broncos. Lock looked awful against the Raiders last Sunday, throwing 4 INTs and leading his team to a measly 12 points. Miami continues to roll under Tua, having won 3 in a row and putting themselves in position for a Wild Card, and possibly position to compete w/ the Bills for the AFC East. The Dolphins defense has been pretty solid this year, which is bad news for a Broncos team struggling to move the ball. Tua still hasn't played his best football yet, and that should worry the rest of the NFL. He's due for a 'welcome to the NFL' type game, and I think it might come this week in the thin-air of Mile High. Go Fins.

NYJ @ LAC (-8.5)

The Pick: LAC

Confidence: 7

Breakdown: Following a tough fought loss to the Pats a couple Mondays ago, the Jets cruised into their bye week, still looking for their first win of the year. Despite the awesome play of Justin Herbert, the Chargers haven't gotten many wins to show for it, and have lost three straight. Nothing like a game against the NFL's worst team, and a team that seems to be tanking for Trevor, to right-the-ship. The Chargers haven't been able to stop anyone on defense, but have still moved the ball at will. They should be able to do so again against the Jets, in what's sure to be an uneventful game. I'd be happier if this line was 7 or under, but I've still got to lay the points in this one.

DAL @ MIN (-7.5)

The Pick: DAL

Confidence: 2

Breakdown: The Vikings have been rolling, winning three straight games against NFC North opponents, including that impressive victory a few weeks ago at Lambeau Field. Dalvin Cook is a forced to be reckoned with, and a man on a mission right now. Dallas should get Andy Dalton back into the fold this week, so they should have a better shot at moving the ball against a still suspect Vikings defense. With the extra preparation time coming off a bye, I'm willing to bet on Andy Dalton to have himself a decent enough day to keep this game competitive, or possibly even walk away with an upset. Dallas still has a ton of playmakers on their side of the ball, and is Dalton that much worse than Cousins? I don't think so. Give me the Cowboys, who never seem to have any quit in them, and still have aspirations of making noise in the pitiful NFC East.

KC @ LV (+6.5)

The Pick: KC

Confidence: 11

Breakdown: The Chiefs haven't forgotten who their only loss this year has been to, with Andy Reid even taking issue with the Raiders doing a victory lap around Arrowhead this year. This time, it'll be the AFC favorite Chiefs doing a victory lap. Patrick Mahomes will absolutely show up big in a primetime SNF game, you can bet on that. Tyreek, CEH, Kelce, all will be doing their thing. Las Vegas has been a nice story this year, but outside of wins against the Chiefs and Saints, they've beaten the Chargers, Broncos, Browns, Panthers, with losses to New England, Buffalo, and the Buccaneers. I'm willing to say the Chiefs and Saints were outliers and this team still feels like it is a 9-7 Wild Card squad (although their ROS schedule looks fairly weak).

LAR @ TB (-3.5)

The Pick: TB

Confidence: 10

Breakdown: Monday Night, and we're feelin' right. Tom Brady and the Bucs took it to the Panthers last week, unleashing all of their frustrations after a piss-poor showing against the Saints. The Rams looked good and got a nice win against the Seahawks last week to further tighten the NFC West race. The NFC South race is also a good one, so this game is huge for both teams playoff positions. With the Saints Drew Brees going down for a few weeks, Tom Brady knows this is the time to capitalize and seize hold of the division. The Rams will no-doubt be one of the toughest opponents the Bucs have faced to date, but Tom's always up for the challenge. Jalen Ramsey is only able to lock-down one guy, so who else is going to matchup with Godwin, Evans, Brown, Gronk? This one should be the best MNF game to date, but I've got to lean w/ the Bucs at home on this one.

Hate my picks? Love my picks? Drop a comment!

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---- Cheddar Jack

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