Cheddar Jack's Week 10 NFL Picks ATS & Confidence

Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick, with 16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games. (Note: some of the lines may have moved since initially being posted on Tuesdays)

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Week 9 Results

ATS: 9-5

Confidence Pts: 62

Season Total

ATS: 70-62

Confidence Pts: 567

WEEK 10 PICKS

IND @ TEN (-2)

The Pick: TEN

Confidence: 10

Breakdown: In a big divisional matchup that could determine the AFC South, the Titans will host the Colts. The Colts are coming off a pretty big letdown against the Ravens last week. Sure, the Ravens are a good football team, but they're not lights out on defense as in years past. Plus they were at home, which makes a 2 touchdown loss look pretty bad. The Colts struggled to get much of anything going on offense last week, while the Titans hosted a stout Bears defense and got the win by a score. The Titans have been solid on offense all year, but their defense leaves us worried. AJ Brown has looked like an absolute stud, and while the Colts secondary has been great this year, he's a nightmare matchup for anyone. If they can get Henry going on the ground as well, the Colts could be in for a long night. Frank Reich might have something up his sleeve in a big divisional game, but I've got to bet the team that's looked much more consistent all year. I'm taking the Titans here.

HOU @ CLE (-3)

The Pick: CLE

Confidence: 5

Breakdown: Houston let me down in a big way last week, giving up a back-door cover in the 4th quarter to a terrible Jags team. Houston doesn't seem to know how to finish off games, or even be competitive in some for that matter. Their defense is not good, despite having JJ Watt who continues to play at a high level. The Browns, meanwhile, should get Nick Chubb back this week and they need him in a major way. Kareem Hunt has been largely a let-down as a fill in, and Chubb should reclaim his status as top dog in this backfield and have a huge day against a terrible Texans run defense. Given that they're coming off a bye as well, Baker and his receivers should be able to find some holes in the Houston secondary as well. I'm thinking this one might get ugly in a hurry for the Texans, unless Deshaun Watson can throw the team on his back. Give me the home team in this one too.

WAS @ DET (-4)

The Pick: WAS

Confidence: 4

Breakdown: Another week, another Lions loss. They went to MN last week and faced a Vikings team that's been somewhat on a roll of late. They lost by double-digits, despite Stafford being available. Matt Patricia's days have to be numbered if they continue to play like this. Washington's coming off a bye week, and Alex Smith should be well acclimated to the offense at this point. Terry McLaurin is a stud, so they have to find a way to get him involved. Antonio Gibson has been pretty solid on the ground for them this year too, and he should be able to grind out yards against an average Lions front. I think this game should be much more of a pick 'em, especially with Washington still in the hunt for the terrible NFC East division. For that reason, I feel pretty good about taking the dog in this one.

JAX @ GB (-13.5)

The Pick: GB

Confidence: 14

Breakdown: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are lighting the league up this year. Green Bay's coming off some extra rest after playing Thursday night, which should mean all-pro LT David Bahkitari will make his return for the Green and Gold. Jacksonville surprised last week by hanging tough with Houston, but I recall this same Packers team dismantling the Texans easily a few weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers record against teams w/ a winning % below 25 is outstanding in his career. The Packers should have their way this week with this inferior opponent.

PHI @ NYG (+3.5)

The Pick: PHI

Confidence: 12

Breakdown: The Giants are looking to remain in the hunt for the NFC East title, as they host the current leaders in the Eagles. The Eagles have won 2 straight games and are coming off their bye week. Carson Wentz seems to be figuring things out on offense a bit, and this week he'll have a full host of weapons at his disposal. Miles Sanders should return, along with Alshon Jeffery. Jalen Reagor is healthy again, and Travis Fulgham has come out of nowhere to look like a quality starting wideout. The Giants were able to take down Washington last week, but the Eagles are a better football team than Washington and seem to be hitting their stride as they enter the 2nd half of the season. I don't think the NYG stand a chance in this game, personally. I'll go with the road-favorites.

TB @ CAR (+4.5)

The Pick: TB

Confidence: 11

Breakdown: The Panthers have now lost four straight games, and are hosting a Buccaneers team that got embarrassed by Drew Brees and the Saints on the big SNF stage. Tom Brady is going to be playing angry. Like, very angry. The Bucs have plenty of weapons on offense. Chris Godwin should be starting to heal up from his finger injury, and Antonio Brown should get a bit more involved in the passing game. The Panthers haven't been able to stop anybody on defense, which has been their downfall. Teddy has looked outstanding, but prior to last week, the Bucs looked like one of the best defenses in the league. Defense usually comes out on top in the NFL, and in this case there's a clear edge to Tampa here. I'll go with the Bucs to cover on the road.

BUF @ ARI (-1.5)

The Pick: BUF

Confidence: 7

Breakdown: Buffalo looked very comfortable at home against a terrible Seahawks defense last week, hanging 44 on them. The Cardinals were big disappointers last week, losing to the Dolphins at home. The Cards get another chance on their home turf this week to prove they're threats in the NFC. Kyler Murray is a stud, and has found a reliable target in Christian Kirk. Buffalo on the other hand, heads out west, looking to get a win before getting a much needed bye. This one feels like a true pick 'em game to me, where both teams are in need of a win to continue solid starts to their season. The Bills are the more experienced team and have their sights set on a first round bye in the postseason. I think they head out west and get a big road win in this one.

LAC @ MIA (-2.5)

The Pick: LAC

Confidence: 1

Breakdown: Tua? More like Two-and-O. The Dolphins have found themselves in the midst of the playoff hunt in the AFC. Who would have seen that one coming? Their defense has looked pretty strong this year, but still gave up 31 points to Kyler Murray and co. last week. The Chargers lost ANOTHER heartbreaker at the final whistle last week. None of that has to do with Justin Herbert, who might be the rookie of the year and the best QB to come out of the draft this year (apologies to Joe Burrow, who I also love). This is a prove-it game for two young QBs. While Tua has the home-advantage in this one, the Chargers are bound to find a win here soon. They've played too tough not to. That's what I'm banking on in this one.

DEN @ LV (-5)

The Pick: DEN

Confidence: 2

Breakdown: Denver hung tough on the road with the Falcons last week, losing by a score. Jerry Jeudy looks like he's going to be a beast in this league for a while, and Drew Lock reminds me a bit of Ryan Tannehill in his younger days. Lock can sling it, and he's got enough weapons to do so. The Raiders will likely try to get the ground game going with Josh Jacobs, but they haven't done much on that front in the past several weeks. The Broncos have also been fairly strong against the run this year, and I think that should continue here. In what's likely to be a close divisional game, I think 5 points is too much and the Broncos have a chance to win this one outright. I'll take the underdog and the points here.

CIN @ PIT (-7.5)

The Pick: CIN

Confidence: 9

Breakdown: Cincinnati already looked like a strong bet at +7.5 before finding out that Big Ben is set to miss this game as a result of covid. Joe Burrow and the boys have hung tough in nearly all of their games this year, with the exception of a blowout to the Ravens in week 5. Joe Burrow and this offense continue to get better each week, and prior to their bye this past week, beat a quality Titans team handedly. Pittsburgh even w/ Big Ben, showed that they're beatable last week, narrowly eeking out a win against a bad Cowboys team and a QB making his first career start. The defense is going to have to come up big for Pittsburgh if they want to win this game. It should be a tight one, and for that reason, 7.5 is far too many points (Note: the line was not re-posted after Big Ben's absence was announced ; it'll likely be a 3 or 4 point line).

SEA @ LAR (-1.5)

The Pick: SEA

Confidence: 8

Breakdown: Seattle got beaten down by the Bills last week, and the Rams are extra-rested coming off their bye. Seattle's defense has looked like swiss cheese, giving up 21+ points in every game this year. The Legion of Boom is no more, so there should be points flying in this game. But in a shootout, I like Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to have the advantage. They can throw opposite of Jalen Ramsey all night long to either Lockett or Metcalf, and if Carson comes back, he'll offer some much needed relief to Wilsons' arm. I like the Seahawks to ultimately win this division, and a win here goes a long way in terms of accomplishing that.

SF @ NO (-9)

The Pick: SF

Confidence: 3

Breakdown: The 49ers looked lost and overmatched against Green Bay on Thursday last week, but with Shanahan, I don't see that happening twice. Star rookie WR Brandon Aiyuk missed that game on the covid list, but will be back this week to light up the Saints suspect defense. Drew Brees and the gang rolled through the Bucs last week in impressive fashion, and should be riding high from that. Who knows if Michael Thomas is going to play in this one, but they'll sure need him. The 49ers had some extra rest, so they should get back a few key pieces on defense this week, making this game much more competitive than against Green Bay. While it's tough to bet against the Saints coming off a quality win last Sunday Night, I think Shanahan will have his team rested and prepared to fight for their season against the Saints this week. Nine points feels like too many. Niner Niner Waffle House Diner.

BAL @ NE (+7)

The Pick: BAL

Confidence: 6

Breakdown: Both of these teams are nothing like we thought they'd be coming into the year. Who knows if the Patriots really wanted to win that game last week against the Jets. We sure know the Jets didn't want to. Baltimore got a nice win against Indy last week, and seem to do well every week that I don't bet on them. So in this case, the Patriots probably roll at home this week. For how suspect I think Baltimore's defense is, they've done a nice job of limiting opponents points this year, giving up only a league leading 142 (just under 18 ppg). The Patriots allowed Cam to air it out last week, but probably because the Jets have nobody than can cover on the defensive side of the ball. I think the Patriots are an OK football team, but the Ravens need this win badly to remain in the hunt for their division and a 1st round bye in the postseason. Lamar Jackson is due for a big game, and so is Hollywood Brown. I think that comes this week in Foxborough.

MIN @ CHI (+2.5)

The Pick: MIN

Confidence: 13

Breakdown: The Bears are frauds. We knew it all along. Their defense isn't enough to win them ball games, and Nick Foles has looked washed since taking over as starting QB. Minnesota meanwhile is beginning to find its stride, and still has playoff aspirations to play for. Dalvin Cook has looked unstoppable, but he might find running against this Bears front much tougher than the Lions last week. Kirk hasn't had to throw the ball much lately, but he has Thielen and Jefferson on the outside that can torch the Bears secondary. This line shockingly opened w/ the Bears favored, but bettors quickly pushed the line in favor of the Vikings. I still think there's room for this line to grow, so I'll take the Vikings on the road, given they've got much more talent on offense to work with.

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---- Cheddar Jack