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Cheddar Jack's NFL Week 2 Bets ATS : BET ‘EM ALL & CONFIDENCE PICKS

Updated: Sep 17, 2020




Each week I'll make every NFL pick ATS, along with a confidence level in each pick (16 being most confident, 1 being least confident, assuming there are 16 games).


Week 1 Results

ATS: 10 - 6

Confidence Pts: 89


Season Total

ATS: 10 - 6

Confidence Pts: 89

WEEK 2 PICKS


Cincinnati (+6) @ Cleveland


Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals travel (albeit, not much) to face Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns in a battle of the toilet bowl on Thursday night. Both teams have struggled in the past couple of seasons, but since Mayfield took over as starting QB, the Browns are 3-1 against the Bengals. However, the tides could be turning with the Bengals finding their franchise QB in Burrow. The Browns are banged up on both sides of the ball, and Mayfield simply hasn't been very good since late 2018. Per PFF (Pro Football Focus), Mayfield ranked 28th amongst QBs in Week 1 w/ a PFF grade of 59.7 on throws from a clean-pocket, while Burrow ranked 10th. This means even when Mayfield has time, he's simply not making good throws. In what should be a grind-it-out divisional game, I'm taking the points, as the Bengals are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups that these two have met.


The Pick : Bengals +6

Confidence: 5


Carolina @ Tampa Bay ( - 8.5)


Tompa Bay got off to a rough start in Week 1, looking completely over matched by the New Orleans Saints. Carolina meanwhile ended up losing outright at home to the Las Vegas Raiders in what proved to be a close game. This is a gut-call here, but I think Tampa Bay right's the ship this week w/ a healthier Mike Evans against a Carolina team that just gave up 34 points to Derek Carr and a bunch of 1st/2nd year players on offense. Plus, I'm not sure what TB12's record is coming off a loss, but I sure as hell know it's not bad. Tampa Bay should win this game, the question is only by how much.


The Pick: Tampa Bay ( -8.5)

Confidence: 8


Denver @ Pittsburgh ( -7.5)


This line has moved quite a bit, as it opened at -6 initially. Pittsburgh and the TJ Watt defense is a forced to be reckoned with. They come at you, and FAST. Per PFF the Steelers D-line generated the most pressures within 2.5 seconds in football last week w/ a whopping 22. They live in the opponents backfield. The Giants offensive line is not exactly anything to write home about, but neither is the Denver Broncos. With Big Ben back this year and JuJu in a contract year, the Steelers are also going to be putting up points in bunches. They should compete for the AFC North title, while the Broncos are hopeful that Drew Lock shows he's a capable signal caller, for a Wild Card team at best.


The Pick: Pittsburgh (-7.5)

Confidence: 7


Los Angeles Rams ( - 1) @ Philadelphia


Is it just me or does this line feel like stealing? The Rams went on the road and beat the pre-season consensus favorites in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles, meanwhile, couldn't keep Carson Wentz upright, giving up 8 sacks last week to the Washington Redskins. The Eagles started that game hot, but ended up giving it away. While they should get some help back on the offensive line this week (Lane Taylor projected to play), I still think the Rams defense causes them massive problems upfront and are more than capable at coverage on the back end. Not only that, the Rams offense was humming last week in Dallas. Perhaps McVay's team gets back to putting up points in bunches again this year.


The Pick : Los Angeles ( -1)

Confidence: 14


San Francisco ( -7) @ New York Jets


San Francisco dropped week 1 to the much-improved Arizona Cardinals, while the New York Jets were dominated by the Buffalo Bills. Sam Darnold hasn't look the part of a franchise QB since entering the league, and he'll be without star RB Leveon Bell for the next few weeks. The 49ers lost a key piece of their own in CB Richard Sherman. The 49ers are still stacked on defense, however, and the Jets should again be one of the worst teams in football. While I'm not usually a fan of betting on western teams crossing the country for an early game, the 49ers are a far superior football team.


The Pick: San Francisco (-7)

Confidence: 11


Buffalo( -5.5) @ Miami


The Buffalo Bills looked like the class of the AFC (not named the Chiefs or Ravens) last week. Josh Allen has been a star, and they added Stefon Diggs in the offseason, proving they're committed to surrounding him with weapons. The Dolphins may be without Devante Parker, who's at least hampered by a hamstring injury. Fitzmagic was a no-show against the Patriots last week, and is simply a holding piece until the Dolphins decide to unleash Tua. The Bills also have one of the better defenses in football, and are 5-1 SU against the Dolphins in their last 6 meetings. I don't feel like 5.5 points is nearly enough for the Dolphins to have a shot to cover here.


The Pick: Buffalo ( -.5.5)

Confidence: 16


Minnesota (+3) @ Indianapolis


This should be one of the closer games this week, with Minnesota looking to bounce back from a W1 loss to Green Bay as they travel to Indy. This feels like a game that the home team would lay 3 in a normal season. However, we know this is not a normal season, as most teams continue to play without fans. Minnesota's defense was gashed by that BAD MAN AARON RODGERS in week 1, but they're a better unit than what they showed. Indianapolis, meanwhile, lost a divison game to the Jaguars who everyone thought would be the worst team in football this year. While Indianapolis should be able to move the ball on the Vikings, I don't see their defense holding up against Dalvin Cook, who should be ready to erupt for a big day.


The Pick : Vikings (+3)

Confidence: 9


Jacksonville (+9) @ Tennessee


Tennessee's offense looked pretty ugly last week at Mile High, while Jacksonville was able to shock the football world by opening week 1 with a win. Tennessee could be without wideout AJ Brown for Sunday, leaving Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith as their leading pass-catchers (who?). If Jacksonville can contain Derrick Henry from having a big day like the Broncos were able to, I think they should be able to stay in the game. Not to mention Minshew should be out there slangin' again.


The Pick : Jacksonville (+9)

Confidence: 3


Detroit @ Green Bay (-6)


This line also feels too low, given the way the Packers came out on offense in week 1 scoring a league-high 43 points. The Lions had week 1 in their grasps before their defense fell apart to Mitch Trubisky and the Bears in the 4th quarter. The Lions may also be without downfield threat Kenny Golladay in week 2. While home-field advantage may not matter much this year, we know that Aaron Rodgers is comfortable playing at Lambeau. Give me the Packers in this one.


The Pick : Green Bay (-6)

Confidence: 12


Atlanta @ Dallas ( -4.5)


The Falcons struggled mightily to stop Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week. The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a tough loss at home to the LA Rams. This should be a shootout between two great offenses. If we're picking who's more likely to stop the other? Give me Dallas defense to shut down ATL. If it were up to me, however, I wouldn't bet this one.


The Pick : Dallas ( -4.5)

Confidence: 4


New York Giants (+5.5) @ Chicago


The Chicago Bears were able to get a come-from-behind victory in week 1 against the Lions, while the New York Giants are on a short-week after getting battered by the Steelers on MNF. Saquon Barkley was nowhere to be found on Monday, and the Giants were dominated by the Steelers pash rush. Call this one a gut check, but I don't think Saquon stays down for long, nor do I feel as though Trubisky plays that well again. If the Giants can give Danny Dimes more time to throw this week, the Giants should be able to move the ball against Chicago. I wouldn't take the Giants to win, but I'll take the points in what I feel should be a close game between closely matched teams.


The Pick: Giants (+5)

Confidence: 6


Washington @ Arizona ( -6.5)


Washington got a tough win against the Eagles last week, and their defense appears to be much improved due to solid d-line play. I'm not confident in their secondary, however. Their offense has some real question marks, as 2nd year QB Dwayne Haskins has been rather inefficient, and their run game was led by journeyman Peyton Barber in week 1, who shouldn't be counted on to make a similar impact in week 2. Arizona, led by Kyler Murray, is the real deal on both sides of the ball this year. Murray is an animal with a rocket arm and scrambling ability, and the offense should move the ball relatively easily like the Eagles did against Washington in the 1Q of week 1. Give me Arizona by double-digits.


The Pick : Arizona ( -6.5)

Confidence: 10


Kansas City @ Los Angeles ( +8.5)


Repeat after me. YOU SHOULD NOT BET AGAINST THE CHIEFS. The Chiefs have dominated this matchup as of late (10 wins SU in the last 11 matchups). The Chargers defense is still one of the better ones in football, but Patrick Mahomes and new toy CEH are going to be a force all year. Patrick probably only has 1 or 2 below-average starts in him all year, and I don't think this is going to be one of them. Chiefs by a billion until proven otherwise.


The Pick : Kansas City ( -8.5)

Confidence: 13


Baltimore @ Houston (+7)


Baltimore looked as dominant as they did last year in week 1 versus the Browns. Those predicting a Lamar Jackson regression have to be awfully quiet at this point. Houston appeared well over matched against the AFC's other favorite Chiefs, but will be looking for a better showing this week around. Deshaun Watson is looking to prove he's a member of that elite group of young QB's, and should come out with a chip on his shoulder. I think the Texans are better than they showed last week, and should be able to keep this one within one score. Give me the points in this one.


The Pick : Houston ( +7)

Confidence: 1


New England ( +3.5) @ Seattle


Seattle's Russell Wilson was out there slangin' in week one, as they hung 38 points on the Falcons. But the Patriots defense are not the Falcons. Despite numerous defensive players opting out of this season for the Pats, Bill Belichick will have the boys ready to play in Prime Time. Cam Newton appears poised and ready to prove the league made a mistake by leaving him unsigned that long. This game should be closer to a pick 'em, and in that case I'll take the 3.5 with New England.


The Pick : New England ( +3.5)

Confidence: 2


New Orleans ( -6) @ Las Vegas


It still feels weird typing the Las Vegas Raiders, but they're ready to host their first game in Sin City. New Orleans put up a great showing last week against Tom and the trendy Bucs, and the Las Vegas Raiders are looking to start 2-0 for the first time in the Jon Gruden era. The line is moving in favor of New Orleans, and for good reason. Very few players show up as big as Drew Brees does in Prime Time.In the last 13 Monday Night Football appearances for the New Orleans Saints’ quarterback, he has thrown form 4,501 yards (346 YPG) and his touchdown to interception ratio is 43 to 6. Give me all the Drew Brees on Monday night.


The Pick : New Orleans ( -6)

Confidence: 15


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